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Presentation

Session: Impact of Aging
Room: Meeting Rooms 25+26
Time: Sat 08:30-09:45

Presenter: Janine Biermann (University Hospital Essen. Clinic of Cardiology)

Abstract

Background: Over the next 30 years the population of most western countries will age rapidly. Beside socioeconomic and social problems considerable consequences on the health care system are expected. As the population ages there will be substantial increase in morbidity, placing a corresponding growth in demand of health care services and relating expenditures. The present work focuses on economic effects of aging in Germany, a country where a total of 63.9 Bn. Euros (27% of the whole health expenditures) originate in hospitals. The following analysis assesses the impact of demographic factors on hospital admissions and related costs over the next 30 years.
Methods: German Federal Statistical Office population projections to 2040, diagnosis statistics and cost of illness data were used to develop a model of future hospital admissions and associated costs. Today’s diagnosis frequencies in hospitals and related costs were transferred to the projected populations until 2040. The model considers age- and sex-specific differences. Results refer to subset diagnoses within the ICD-10-classification. Respective costs were inflation-adjusted with 2% per annum.
Results: By 2040, ageing will increase hospital admissions by 12% compared to 2010. Most of all hospital stays belong to diseases of the circulatory system with 2,674,118 admissions in 2010 and an increase by 33% until 2040. Endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases exhibit lower levels of admissions with 454,390 in 2010, however, they also indicate a high increase rate of 25%. Admissions for diseases of the respiratory system will rise by 15% (155,220 cases). Furthermore admissions due to neoplasms, diseases of the digestive system, certain infectious and parasitic diseases as well as diseases of the nervous system increase by 18% (318,586 cases), 14% (228,688 cases), 11% (51,341 cases) and 12% (78,103 cases) respective. In contrast to previous diseases hospital stays because of mental and behavioural disorders will decrease by 9% until 2040, although in this diagnosis group dementia-related stays are expected to rise by estimated 70%. Overall expenditures for hospitalisations will increase by 103% between 2010 and 2040. A main part of this increase in costs belongs to high expenditure rates in the cardiovascular sector.
Conclusion: Ageing of the population will increase the demand for inpatient hospital services by 12% and associated costs by 103%. The highest increases are expected in cardiovascular and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases with 33% and 25%, respectively. We assume that the reported development in Germany is transferable to other industrialized countries in the western region. Further research is needed to estimate the impact of the demographic change on other health care sectors such as out- and inpatient care.

Key Terms

demographic change, hospital admissions, health care expenditures

Authors:

Janine Biermann (University Hospital Essen. Clinic of Cardiology) , Anja Neumann (University of Duisburg-Essen. Chair for Medical Management) , Jürgen Wasem (University of Duisburg-Essen. Chair for Medical Management) , Raimund Erbel (University Hospital Essen. Clinic of Cardiology) and Till Neumann (University Hospital Essen. Clinic of Cardiology)

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