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Presentation

Session: Informal Care
Room: Main Hall
Time: Thu 11:45-13:00

Presenter: Klarita Sadiraj (The Netherlands Institute for Social Research/SCP. Public sector)

Abstract

Population ageing is giving rise to concerns in the Netherlands about the affordability of providing care funded under the Exceptional Medical Expenses Act (AWBZ). The working population, which is largely responsible for paying the contributions, is shrinking while demand for care is rising due to the growing number of older people. Partly because of this, the government has for some time been looking at informal care from a different perspective. Terms such as ‘usual care’ and ‘own responsibility’, which have now been embedded in legislation, reflect the less voluntary place being given to informal care in the whole spectrum of care for the sick and disabled.
This new-found importance of informal care raises the question of whether there will actually be enough informal carers in the future. There are some doubts about this because family members live increasingly far apart, families are becoming smaller, more and more people are in paid employment and, even leaving aside these developments, people’s willingness to help each other is declining. For this reason, we compile forecasts in relation to the giving and receiving of informal care. The underlying questions here are:
1. How will the extent of informal care develop over the next 20 years, seen from the perspective of both the providers and recipients of this care?
2. How does the Dutch government’s objective for rising labour market participation relate to the development of informal support?
Data and Method
Our analysis is based on a survey among 6000 Dutch households (in 2007). The forecasts are derived from an explanatory model which in the first place consists of estimates of the relationships between giving and receiving informal care on the one hand, and factors which are known to influence the choice in favour of informal care (the ‘determinants’) on the other. A population model has also been constructed, which models expected future trends in the determinants. The forecasts are compiled by linking together estimates and trends.
Results
1. The forecasts suggest that the number of people aged over 30 who make use of informal care is likely to increase (by approximately 8% between 2007 and 2030). The total number of informal caregivers is projected to rise slightly (by 5%) in the period to 2030.
2. There is a shift among providers of informal care from the relatively younger to the older population.
3. If cohabiting men and women were to divide their present working hours equally, the number of informal caregivers would be 5% higher in 2030 than according to the baseline forecast.
4. If both partners were to increase their working hours, the figure in 2030 would be 10% below the number of caregivers predicted in the baseline scenario.
Policy implications
The results show that the rising labour market participation which the Dutch government sees as necessary in order to compensate for the shrinking labour force, comes at a price in the form of loss of informal support. This loss could result in greater demands on professional care provision, unless leave arrangements are improved.

Key Terms

informal care, labour participation, trends

Authors:

Klarita Sadiraj , Joost Timmermans , Isolde Woittiez , Michiel Ras and Alice de Boer

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